Hubert Horan aviation consulting



Listed below are various analysis of the competitive economics of Uber. These are based on Horan's 40 years of experience in the management and regulation of transportation companies. Horan has no financial links with any urban car service industry competitors, investors or regulators, or any firms that work on behalf of industry participants.


Transportation Law Journal article

Will the Growth of Uber Increase Economic Welfare?

Citation: 44 Transp. L.J., 33-105 (2017)
Available for download at SSRN:

The detailed (30,000 word) analysis of Uber’s historical development, financial performance and competitive economic, based on data available as of July 2017. Includes over 200 citations of contemporary media reports and industry analysis.

American Affairs Magazine article
Uber's Path of Destruction
American Affairs, vol.3 no. 2, Summer 2019, pp.108-133
Provides a 9,000 word overview of Uber's development, economic issues and financial results through early 2019.

Interview on ABC Television (Australia) Four Corners program

The Uber Story

Video and transcript of Four Corners broadcast of 18 March 2019

aked Capitalism Uber Series

Can Uber Ever Deliver? Parts 1-5—Nov-Dec 2016

Parts 1-4 include the original versions of arguments (subsequently published in the TLJ article) about Uber’s dismal financial results, uncompetitive economics, and its explicit pursuit of unregulated industry dominance based on data available in 2016; Part 5 answers questions raised by readers of Parts 1-4

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Can Uber Ever Deliver? Parts 6-10—Jan-Jun 2017

Part 6 updated the evidence from part 1 on Uber’s dismal financial results.

Part 7 outlined Uber’s PR “narrative” and part 9 documented how this “narratives” had been taken directly from propaganda narratives developed in the 1990s by well-funded groups seeking the complete elimination of all forms of governmental oversight over the taxi industry.

Other material here (which is not included in the TLJ article) addressed the major flaws in well-publicized pro-Uber pieces, including (in part 8) a major book on Uber by Bloomberg’s senior tech industry reporter and totally ignored all available evidence about Uber’s economics, totally whitewashed the cultural and ethical issues that had engulfed Uber in controversy, and argued the book should be seen as PR advocacy, and not as journalism.

Part 10 describes major Uber events in the first half of 2017, including an internal investigation of systematic sexual harassment at Uber and the forced resignation of CEO Travis Kalanick.

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Can Uber Ever Deliver? Parts 11-15—Dec 2017-Jun 2018

Parts 11, 13, and 15 update the documentation of Uber’s staggering losses based on newly published data through (respectively) 3Q2017, 4Q2017 and 1Q2018. Parts 12 and 14 examine major pro-Uber pieces in mainstream publications (Bloomberg and the New Yorker) and show how they systematically ignore financial/economic data while emphasizing unsubstantiated Uber PR narrative claims. Part 16 demonstrates why the first published forecast of future Uber profitability and potential IPO valuation  (by Morningstar) was totally indefensible and worthless.

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Can Uber Ever Deliver? Parts 16-20--Aug 2018-May 2019

These document Uber's 2018 financial results and events leading up to the 2019 Lyft and Uber IPOs. Part 16 demonstrates why the first published forecast of future Uber profitability and potential IPO valuation (by Morningstar) was totally indefensible and worthless. Part 18 examined Lyft's IPO prospectus (which included the first public release of historical financial results) and its failure to explain how the ridesharing buisness could ever become profitable. Part 19 examined Uber's IPO propsectus and documented how Uber had massively inflated claimed P&L improvements by categorizing the alleged value of untradable financial paper related to failed and discontinued opertaions as current profits from ongoing operations. Part 20 discussed the results of the two "train-wreck" IPOs and how the actual results failed to change the media narrative describing both as highly valuable companies. 

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Uber articles published at Pando

Has Pando missed the heart of the Uber problem? A transportation industry expert writes...---December 1, 2015

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Uber an avatar of innovation and progress? The economic evidence says otherwise--March 10,2017.
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